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Assessing Dementia Risk
By James Keough
With the incidence of Alzheimer’s and dementia on the rise—in 2005 a panel of experts suggested cases worldwide would double every 20 years from the roughly 25 million cases then diagnosed—doctors and the general public alike would welcome a way to predict the likelihood of contracting the condition.
Recently scientists at the Aging Research Center in Stockholm, Sweden, developed a risk-factor score based on the study of 1,409 subjects whom they had first examined at around 50 years of age and then again roughly 20 years later. They found that high age, blood cholesterol, hypertension, obesity, and low education levels (less than 10 years) significantly predicted future dementia. The risk-factor scores ranged from zero to 15; middle-aged subjects with a score of 12 to 15 faced a 16.4 percent risk of dementia.
While the researchers stress the need for further refinement and validation of their methods, the high level of predictability in the risk-factor score highlights the importance of lowering cholesterol and blood pressure, staying fit, and keeping mentally active in middle age and beyond. With no cure for dementia or Alzheimer’s in sight, prevention remains the only available option for achieving a clearheaded old age.
Author: James Keough
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